Association of Washington Business – Updated Weekly

As ballot counting finishes, Democrats appear poised to flip one House seat in the Washington Legislature.

• Democrat Adison Richards defeated Republican Jesse Young in the 26th district for the seat held by the retiring Republican Rep. Spencer Hutchins.

Headed for a recount: Democrats could also flip a seat in the Senate , although that race in the 18th legislative district in Southwest Washington remains too close to call.

• Democrat Adrian Cortes leads Republican Brad Benton by 343 votes. The race is likely headed to a recount. Republican Sen. Ann Rivers did not seek re-election for the seat.

Why it matters: Democrats currently hold majorities in the Legislature, including 29-20 in the Senate and 58-40 in the House.

• Employers can expect to see Democratic priorities return in the next legislative session, including rent control, limiting hospital mergers, and unemployment benefits for striking workers.

Close races: At the same time, Republicans are retaining seats in several closely watched contests:

• In the 10th legislative district that includes Oak Harbor, AWB-endorsed candidate Sen. Ron Muzzall narrowly leads Democratic challenger Janet St. Clair.

• Republican Deb Manjarrez has extended a narrow lead over Democrat Ana Ruiz Kennedy in the newly drawn 14th legislative district in the Yakima Valley.

When it’s official: Counties must certify the Nov. 5 election results by Nov. 26.

Prepare for cuts: As Gov. Jay Inslee prepares to leave office, his budget director is calling on state agencies to submit cost-cutting proposals. Sen. June Robinson, D-Everett, chair of the Senate Ways & Means Committee, said both spending cuts and new revenue are on the table.

How big is the shortfall? The Office of Financial Management (OFM) estimates that “the magnitude of the operating budget deficit is between $10 and $12 billion over the four-year period.” In October OFM had projected the shortfall at $5 to $7 billion.

• The Washington Research Council estimates that the cost of providing current services will exceed tax revenues by $7.2 billion over the next four years.

What caused it? Former House Majority Leader Pat Sullivan, now Gov. Inslee’s chief budget writer, attributes the deficit to “recent revenue forecasts that were adjusted down and the increase in caseloads and the cost to maintain existing programs.”

Another perspective: Budget researcher Emily Makings notes, however, that the state’s revenue forecast is only down by $608 million over the next four years — and that’s after the 2025-27 revenues are forecast to be $5.1 billion higher than the current biennium.

• She writes: “As we showed in a recent policy brief, the estimated shortfall is the result of legislative spending choices. The Legislature chose to increase appropriations in 2023–25 by 15.8% over 2021–23, at a time when biennial revenues were expected to increase by 3.5%. Now that bill is coming due.”

Learn more: Contact AWB’s lead on tax and fiscal issues, Max Martin, for details.

Bob Ferguson has named 53 people to assist him as he moves into the role of governor. Members of the transition team includes state and local elected officials, members of employer, labor and other advocacy groups, small business owners, and tribal representatives.

• Dave Mastin, AWB Vice President of Government Affairs, will serve on the transition team

Switching out: The team will help transition from Gov. Jay Inslee’s to Ferguson’s administration, Washington’s first governor changeover in 12 years.

“Transition is a critical time for our state,” Ferguson said. “I’m grateful to this team for dedicating their time and energy.”

Get updates: Learn what to expect in the gubernatorial transition in a free AWB webinar at 11 a.m. Wednesday.

All-American competition: Twenty-seven student finalists from across America competed in the first-ever National Civics Bee Championship in Washington, D.C. last week. Led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, it was a chance for middle-school students to showcase their civic knowledge, critical thinking, and problem-solving skills in a live competition.

• The winner of the Washington state competition, Ilyannie Gonzalez, made it to the top ten finalists. She wrote up her experience in a travelogue for AWB News, calling it “an experience of a lifetime.”

• Emily Brubaker from Alaska was named the champion, earning a $100,000 scholarship.

Register now for 2025 competition: The deadline is Feb. 4, 2025, for middle-schoolers to sign up for next year’s competition. Learn more and register at the AWB Institute website.

• More than a half-dozen local chambers of commerce, from Willapa Bay to Walla Walla, will host regional competitions.

• The AWB Institute will host Washington state’s finals for the 2025 National Civics Bee on June 21, 2025 at Olympia High School.

New administration: Gov.-Elect Bob Ferguson’s team will discuss plans for Washington’s first gubernatorial transition in 12 years in a free webinar coming up Wednesday, Nov. 20, at 11 a.m.

Updates for employers: AWB Vice President of Government Affairs Dave Mastin will serve as moderator in this free webinar.

McMorris Rodgers reads importance of Snake River dams into congressional record

Retiring U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers inserted comments into the Congressional Record last week formally stating her strong support for the four Lower Snake River dams and the value they provide to Eastern Washington.

She calls the Columbia River System the beating heart of the Pacific Northwest and a super-marine highway for famers to ship products across the country.

• “The scientific evidence supports the reality that dams and salmon can — and do — co-exist… We do not have to choose between saving our dams and preserving our salmon populations. We can continue to protect endangered salmon without sacrificing our way of life.”

2024 Washington voter turnout lags

About 79.3% of the state’s five million registered voters turned in ballots in the Nov. 5 election, The Seattle Times reports. That’s below the 84.6% of ballots returned in the 2020 election, and closer to 2016’s turnout of 79%.

One factor is lower turnout among younger voters, which is not a new phenomenon. Fewer than half of voters under 30 voted this year.

“Certainly, the age range of 18 to 34 did not turn out at historic numbers,” said Stuart Holmes, director of elections for the Secretary of State’s office. “That’s really going to be what drives that turnout figure.”

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State budget problems remain even as voters reject initiatives

The state is still facing a projected $5 billion budget shortfall, despite voters upholding Washington’s capital gains tax, cap-and-trade auctions, and long-term care insurance program, the Washington Research Council writes.

“Although the election results are surely a relief for operating and transportation budget writers, they don’t change the underlying budget problems.”

The research council previously highlighted the reasons behind the budget shortfall, with lawmakers appropriating more money than they knew they would collect.

Taking care of employees: Dan Tapani Excavating is one of the first Clark County companies to take advantage of AWB’s HealthChoice, now available statewide after expanding to Clark County this year. Read more.

“The coverage is great,” said co-owner Andy Tapani. “Looking for a health care plan for employees is very challenging. There are not a lot of options out there. We’re very happy with AWB coming into Clark County with another option.”

Comprehensive coverage: AWB’s HealthChoice provides access to health care and competitive offerings on ancillary benefits such as dental and vision coverage that businesses may not be able to get on their own. It also offers streamlined administration and customer service support.

Get your free quote: For more information, please visit propointservices.com/healthchoice, and for a free, no-obligation quote, contact Billy Sangster at billys@propointservices.com.

“… the estimated shortfall is the result of legislative spending choices. The Legislature chose to increase appropriations in 2023–25 by 15.8% over 2021–23, at a time when biennial revenues were expected to increase by 3.5%. Now that bill is coming due.” - Emily Makings of the Washington Research Council, in a memo about the anticipated budget shortfall facing the 2025 Legislature.